My followers and personal clients are off to
a perfect 4-0 start in college basketball following last night's 67-54
Butler win over a shorthanded Northwestern team. Northwestern is scrambling for starters to replace senior forwards Kevin Koble and Jeff Ryan who were lost for
the season with injuries. All four of our winning selections have
covered the spread by at least eight (8) points which brings an
interesting thought about college basketball and specifically betting
early season games.
No team sport offers a greater opportunity to beat
the bookmaker than college basketball, and the early season results
prove that based on the final scores in relation to the bookmakers
betting line. No time more than November do the final scores and
results fall further from the betting line. Early season college
basketball offers opportunities to bet games like Miami, Ohio (+20) at
Kentucky on November 16 (a winner for us) and watch the big underdog
take a top team to the wire before losing by two points at the buzzer.
Later that same night Cal State Fullerton (+17) goes to UCLA and pulls
the outright upset at Pauley Pavilion to snap the Bruins 37-game home
winning streak against unranked, non-conference opponents. We cashed
our opening game winner with St. Bonaventure as a short home underdog
and the Bonnies beat Cleveland State 72-62.
Early season college basketball offers coaches a
chance to experiment with different lineups and strategies as they work
through the non-conference schedule. However, teams like Butler that
return five starters with experience have an advantage with
cohesiveness over a lineup like Northwestern which has been hit by key
injuries. Northwestern coach Bill Carmody stated, "We're trying to
find out exactly where we are now with Jeff out and Kevin out, and
we're just trying different combinations." It's almost like we're
starting over again."
Of course the point spread is the great equalizer, but in this case
it was not enough and we took advantage of the situation with Butler.
While we've taken a fairly conservative approach in going 4-0 the
opening 10 days of the CBB season, know that there are great
opportunities for profit in college basketball as competition mandates
that the bookmakers post prices on over 300 teams (vs. 30 in the NBA)
providing the gambler and astute bettor more options. Obviously it's
easier to find a bad number when 100 CBB games are played over a
four-day stretch last Friday through Monday versus 26 NBA contests or
14 NFL games over that same time frame. Adding to the bookmakers fear
of the sharp sports bettor is the fact they continue to delay and limit
the amount of both the wagers allowed and number of totals posted.
College basketball does indeed offer the greatest
opportunity for profit from both a sides and totals perspective. While
some big lines moves are prevalent in early season basketball, there is
still no greater time to profit from the opportunities available. Join
me as we shoot for our 6th consecutive winning season in college basketball and best wishes as you fire for the green!